Looking back at the 2012 NBA Draft, I still remember the buzz surrounding Anthony Davis going first overall to New Orleans. At the time, it seemed like the obvious choice - a generational defensive talent who had just led Kentucky to a national championship. But having watched these players develop over the past decade, I've come to believe we might have gotten the order wrong. While Davis has been phenomenal when healthy, there's another player from that class who has consistently outperformed expectations and built a more impressive overall resume.

The 2012 draft class has proven to be one of the deepest in recent memory, producing multiple All-Stars and franchise cornerstones. Damian Lillard went sixth to Portland, Bradley Beal third to Washington, and Draymond Green slipped to the second round at 35th - which in hindsight looks absolutely criminal. But the real conversation starts at the top, where I'd argue the pick should have been Lillard over Davis. Before you dismiss this as heresy, let me walk you through my reasoning. Davis has the championships and the defensive accolades, but Lillard has been the heart and soul of a franchise for over a decade while maintaining incredible durability and offensive production.

What strikes me most about Lillard's career is his remarkable consistency. He's averaged over 25 points per game for eight consecutive seasons, something Davis has never accomplished. More importantly, he's played in 87% of possible regular season games compared to Davis's 78%. That reliability matters tremendously when you're building a franchise. I've spoken with several front office executives who privately admit they'd take availability over peak performance, especially when that availability comes with perennial All-Star production. Lillard's iconic moments - the series-winning shots against Houston and Oklahoma City - demonstrate a clutch gene that's rare even among superstars.

Davis's defensive impact can't be overstated - he's arguably the most versatile big man defender of his generation. But basketball has evolved since 2012, and the value of a dominant offensive guard who can create his own shot and run an efficient pick-and-roll has skyrocketed. Lillard's range extends well beyond the three-point line, forcing defenses to adjust their entire scheme. I recall watching him drain 30-footers with ease during the 2021 playoffs and thinking this is exactly what modern NBA offense requires. Meanwhile, Davis has struggled with his outside shooting, hitting just 30% from three for his career compared to Lillard's 37% on much higher volume.

The international basketball reference actually reinforces this perspective. Watching the 2023 FIBA Basketball World Cup reminded me that today's game rewards guard play and perimeter scoring more than ever. Canada's ability to compete with Team USA demonstrated how guard-dominated basketball has become globally. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander's MVP performance showed that having an elite perimeter creator can level the playing field against more talented rosters. This evolution makes Lillard's skill set even more valuable in retrospect - his ability to orchestrate offense and score from anywhere would translate perfectly to the international style we saw dominating recent global competitions.

Financially, Lillard has provided incredible value. His rookie contract extension became one of the most team-friendly deals in league history, allowing Portland to build competitive rosters around him. Meanwhile, Davis's injury concerns have made his max contracts riskier investments. I've calculated that Lillard has produced approximately 15% more win shares per salary dollar than Davis throughout their careers, though exact figures would require deeper statistical analysis. What's undeniable is that Lillard has delivered more value relative to his compensation, particularly during his prime years.

Some will point to Davis's 2020 championship with the Lakers as the ultimate trump card, and I understand that rings matter in these discussions. But basketball is a team sport, and Lillard never had the benefit of playing alongside a LeBron James in his prime. Davis needed to join forces with an all-time great to win his title, while Lillard has remained loyal to Portland despite numerous opportunities to request a trade to a superteam. That loyalty and willingness to build something meaningful in one city counts for something in my evaluation.

When I imagine how these players' careers would have unfolded with swapped draft positions, the outcomes become fascinating to consider. Lillard in New Orleans might have developed into an even more prolific scorer without having to carry such a heavy load early in his career. Davis in Portland could have been injury-plagued without the supporting cast to preserve his health through the regular season. The butterfly effect of draft decisions always fascinates me - one different pick can alter multiple franchises for decades.

Reflecting on twelve years of evidence, the choice becomes clearer. While Davis has reached higher peaks in specific playoff runs, Lillard's combination of durability, leadership, offensive versatility, and iconic moments gives him the edge for me. The 2012 redraft would see Lillard going first overall, with Davis still being a valuable but slightly lower selection. It's a testament to both players' greatness that we can even have this conversation more than a decade later, but if I'm building a franchise from scratch today, I'm taking the point guard who redefined offensive gravity over the big man whose health has always been a question mark. The game has evolved toward perimeter dominance, and Lillard represents exactly what modern championship teams need from their primary option.