As a longtime college basketball analyst who’s tracked the Big 12 for over a decade, I’ve seen Kansas State flirt with greatness more times than I can count. Each season brings that familiar surge of hope among Wildcats fans—could this finally be the year they break through and capture the Big 12 Championship? I’ll admit, I’ve been burned before, but something about this squad feels different. Watching their offseason development and the way they’ve handled high-pressure moments so far, I’m leaning into cautious optimism. Let’s dive into why Kansas State might just have the pieces to turn that long-awaited dream into reality.

When I look at Kansas State’s current roster, what stands out isn’t just raw talent—though they have plenty—but the kind of gritty, team-first chemistry that wins championships. They return about 78% of their scoring from last season, including veteran guard Markquis Johnson, who averaged 16.4 points and 5.2 assists in conference play. That continuity matters, especially in a league as physical and defensively intense as the Big 12. I remember talking to a scout last month who mentioned how their ball movement in half-court sets has improved dramatically; they’re averaging nearly 18 assists per game in early matchups, which, if it holds, would put them among the top three in the conference. But stats only tell part of the story. What I’ve noticed is their resilience in close games. They’ve already pulled off two comeback wins in the final five minutes this season—something they struggled with last year. That mental toughness is exactly what you need when every possession in the Big 12 feels like a battle.

Now, I can’t discuss championship potential without looking at the broader landscape, and it’s impossible to ignore parallels in other leagues. Take the MPBL, for example—the Philippines’ Maharlika Pilipinas Basketball League—where just last Monday, San Juan and Abra Solid North took very different paths to secure the top spot. San Juan relied on a balanced, methodical offense, while Abra leaned on explosive perimeter shooting and transition defense. It’s a reminder that there’s no single blueprint for success. Kansas State reminds me a bit of San Juan in that sense; they don’t have one superstar carrying the load, but they have multiple players who can step up in different phases of the game. Against Houston earlier this month, it was their bench that delivered 32 points, showing depth I hadn’t seen from them in years. That kind of versatility is crucial, especially when injuries or foul trouble hit during the tournament grind.

Of course, the Big 12 is a beast. Kansas, Baylor, Texas—these aren’t just tough opponents; they’re perennial powerhouses with deep tournament experience. I’ve sat courtside at games where the Wildcats seemed overwhelmed by the moment, and it’s cost them dearly. But this group appears more focused. Their defense, which ranked in the middle of the pack last season, has jumped to top-four in efficiency, allowing just 0.89 points per possession through their first eight games. If they can maintain that, they’ll be in every contest, even on off-shooting nights. I also love the coaching adjustments Jerome Tang has made; he’s using more small-ball lineups to spread the floor, which could exploit slower Big 12 frontcourts. Still, I worry about their three-point consistency—they’re hitting around 34% from deep, which is decent but not elite. In a championship scenario, they’ll need to knock down open looks when defenses collapse inside.

Let’s talk about intangibles. Championship teams often have that one player who elevates everyone else, and for Kansas State, I see that in senior forward David N’Guessan. He’s not their leading scorer, but his energy on the glass and defensive communication set the tone. I spoke with a former Wildcat who said N’Guessan’s leadership in the locker room has been transformative—guys are holding each other accountable in a way that feels new. Combine that with a favorable schedule (they avoid facing Kansas and Baylor back-to-back), and the path to the Big 12 title seems more navigable than in recent memory. Are they the favorites? Probably not—most analytics models give them around a 12-15% chance to win it all. But as I’ve learned covering this sport, percentages don’t always capture heart, and this team has plenty of it.

So, can Kansas State finally do it? My gut says yes, but with a caveat: they’ll need health and a little luck. The Big 12 tournament is a marathon, not a sprint, and surviving three grueling days requires both skill and fortune. If their key players stay fresh and they maintain their defensive identity, I believe they’re capable of cutting down the nets. It won’t be easy—nothing in the Big 12 ever is—but for the first time in a while, I’m buying into the hype. Wildcats fans have waited long enough; this might just be the season they celebrate that elusive championship.