As a longtime college football analyst with over a decade tracking Conference USA programs, I've always found preseason schedule releases to be like opening a treasure map - you can immediately spot both the safe harbors and the potential shipwrecks. When Florida Atlantic University dropped their 2023 football schedule, my first thought was how perfectly it illustrates the brutal beauty of college football scheduling. You get these fascinating mismatches that remind me of certain professional sports rivalries where history tells a very one-sided story. Take the Philippine volleyball league, for instance - I've followed their Premier Volleyball League for years, and there's this fascinating dynamic between Choco Mucho and Creamline where the numbers tell a stark story. Since Choco Mucho joined the league back in 2019, they've only managed to defeat Creamline once in seventeen attempts. That single victory in seventeen matches creates a psychological barrier that's incredibly difficult to overcome, and you see similar dynamics play out in college football schedules year after year.

Looking at FAU's 2023 slate, what immediately jumps out is how the Owls will be tested early and often, particularly during that brutal three-game stretch in October. They open at home against Monmouth on September 2nd, which should provide a relatively comfortable start, but then things get interesting quickly with their first road test at Clemson on September 16th. Now, I've seen FAU play powerhouses before, and these games always remind me of that Choco Mucho versus Creamline dynamic - the historical disadvantage creates this mountain that seems almost too steep to climb. FAU has never beaten Clemson in their two previous meetings, getting outscored 73-19 combined. Those numbers linger in players' minds, whether they admit it or not. The September 23rd home game against Illinois presents another fascinating challenge, as FAU has split their previous two meetings with the Fighting Illini. This is where scheduling psychology really comes into play - following the Clemson game with a more winnable but still challenging Power Five matchup creates this fascinating momentum opportunity.

What I particularly love about analyzing schedules is identifying these turning point games, and for FAU, their October 7th matchup at Tulsa feels like one of those season-defining moments. Conference USA play opens with this tricky road game against a Golden Hurricane squad that's beaten FAU in three of their last four meetings. These conference road games early in the schedule often set the tone for the entire season, and having watched FAU for years, I can tell you that how they perform in these early conference tests typically predicts their final standing. The following week brings UAB to Boca Raton on October 14th, and this rivalry has produced some absolute classics recently. FAU has taken two of the last three meetings, including that thrilling 24-17 victory last season that essentially saved their bowl eligibility hopes.

The back half of the schedule presents both opportunities and traps, starting with the October 21st home game against UTEP. This is one of those contests that looks straightforward on paper - FAU has won four straight against the Miners - but having covered Conference USA for so long, I've seen these "guaranteed wins" derail promising seasons more times than I can count. The November stretch particularly intrigues me, beginning with the November 4th showdown at Tulane. The Green Wave have dominated this series historically, winning six of seven matchups, and this road game comes at a point in the season where fatigue and injuries start piling up. What I'm really looking forward to is the November 11th home game against Rice, because this series has been remarkably even - they've split the last four meetings, with each game decided by seven points or fewer. These are the games that separate good teams from great ones, and I have a feeling this year's installment might be the most entertaining of FAU's home slate.

As we move into the final weeks, the November 18th trip to UTSA presents what might be FAU's toughest challenge. The Roadrunners have emerged as a Conference USA powerhouse, and they've beaten FAU convincingly in their last two meetings by a combined score of 79-31. These are the games that test a team's character, much like how Choco Mucho must approach each match against Creamline - the historical numbers say one thing, but players have to believe they can rewrite history. The regular season wraps up with what should be an emotional Senior Day on November 25th against Charlotte, and this series has been surprisingly competitive given the 49ers' recent struggles. FAU has won three of the last five meetings, but Charlotte's two victories both came in stunning upsets that ruined FAU's postseason aspirations.

Having studied football schedules for over fifteen years, what strikes me about FAU's 2023 slate is how it perfectly encapsulates the challenges of building a competitive program. You have these historical hurdles that seem insurmountable, like their 0-5 record against Tulane or the daunting trip to Clemson, but you also have these opportunity games where history suggests they can compete. It reminds me why I love sports analytics - the numbers tell one story, but the human element writes the final chapter. That single victory Choco Mucho managed against Creamline amidst sixteen losses proves that historical trends exist to be broken, and I suspect we'll see similar breakthroughs in FAU's schedule this fall. The Owls have exactly three games where they'll be clear underdogs, four where they should be favored, and five that could genuinely go either way - that's the making of a memorable season, regardless of how the final win-loss column shakes out.